Game Analysis

Timberwolves 93, Raptors 95: Take Care

There are few things in basketball as deflating as watching an opposing midrange jumpshooter on a hot streak. You know that, even with his impressive arsenal of fades and stepbacks, when he shoots that beautiful 18-footer over his defender’s outstretched hand, he is taking the least efficient shot on the floor. He is doing exactly what you want him to do. And still, the ball goes in the basket.

For the most part, the Wolves defended DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay the way that you hoped they might. They walled off the paint, prevented layups, kept the two long slashers off the free-throw line, stayed at home on three-point shooters. There are a few quibbles here and there–we might’ve liked to see Andrei Kirilenko give Gay less room to maneuver at the point of attack; they blew a rotation with two minutes to play that resulted in a DeRozan three-point play–but, in general, when we see anybody besides Dirk Nowitzki circa 2010 taking contested long-range twos, we can conclude that the defense has done its job. Nevertheless, there were Gay and DeRozan deploying their full array of pivots, hesitations and crossovers, hitting contested jumper after contested jumper.

Still, a team could do worse than allowing its opponents’ two best scorers–both unreasonably accurate from outside and preying on mismatches–to tally 51 points on 46 shots. Much more problematic, if you ask me, were a) the Wolves’ inability to fully capitalize on their 40-16 free-throw advantage and b) their inability to parlay moderate leads into decisive leads, to complete the job of beating a team that, for a while, was begging to be beaten.

Lets dispense with part ‘a’ quickly, because it is both aggravating and tedious. The Wolves, as they do, got to the line a lot. And, just as typically, they missed 25% of those free-throws. They missed three out of their last six free-throws and, of course, Ricky Rubio missed the one that would have tied the game at 94 with 1.7 seconds remaining. There, done.

Now for ‘b.’ The Raptors played some stretches of truly listless defense, in which, for instance, Alexei Shved was allowed to dribble unimpeded to within five feet of the hoop and loft an uncontested floater and Chase Budinger was given free reign to run off flare screens, rise up with a nice, clear look at the hoop and hit some perfectly relaxed, unimpeded jumpers. What’s more, the Raptors were saddled with the problem that neither Jonas Valanciunas nor Aaron Gray seemed capable of single-covering Nikola Pekovic without blatantly fouling him.

And so, in the first three quarters, the Wolves were able, with relative ease, to cruise out to leads of nine, eight and 11–but no more than that. That they were unable to extend those leads into more forbidding territory is a testament to their simple lack of consistent execution. A case in point are the minutes following the third-quarter Andrei Kirilenko three that gave the Wolves their one and only double-digit lead. Ricky Rubio penetrates the Raptors’ defense but delivers a pass to Pekovic’s feet. Derrick Williams falls over while attempting a rather ornate spin move in isolation. Luke Ridnour dribbles the ball out of bounds. Rubio attempts to initiate the offense by entering the ball to Kirilenko at the elbow; but AK does not fully seal his defender and Rubio’s pass is too casual. Rudy Gay jumps into the passing lane and streaks to the other end of the floor for a breakaway dunk. The Wolves go to a 2-3 zone in order to contain Kyle Lowry’s dribble penetration–and yet Lowry still manages to split the two backcourt defenders and hit an open floater at the third-quarter buzzer.

And things only got worse over the first few minutes of the fourth quarter when Rubio got his rest and J.J. Barea took the opportunity to perfect his ball-pounding, clock-killing, impossible-jumper routine. Its worth noting that at no point during the 12-4 run that brought them back into the game did the Raptors look particularly dynamic on either end of the floor. Minnesota’s slack execution simply allowed them to crawl back into the game.

By the time Rubio had settled things back down with a series of shrewd pick-and-rolls, in the process remembering to take advantage of Pekovic down low, the one truly shining matchup advantage at the Wolves’ disposal, Toronto had gained a measure of confidence. Their defense started to buzz, Gay and DeRozan got hot. It ended badly.

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0 thoughts on “Timberwolves 93, Raptors 95: Take Care

  1. It’s like someone took the thoughts out of my brain while leaving Target Center and published them. You described it excellently.

    This seems to happen sometimes with wins: players learn the wrong lessons from them. Whatever focus on both ends that made them a step ahead of Milwaukee on Wednesday was lacking and replaced with the sloppiness you described. It seems to also happen way too much with guys who were incidental in the success (Barea, Shved, Williams). I was hoping Adelman would just play 7 in the second half and have Ridnour run the point when Rubio was on the bench because of how atrociously everyone played save Budinger and Cunningham (Stiemsma was okay but I understand why they needed Pek in for the whole 2nd half).

    I wonder about 1 thing. Defenses who set up based on stats obviously succeed more than fail. However, I wonder whether it’s as important for a defense to stop what a guy wants to do as well, even if they know he’s not that good at it. Gay and DeRozan love taking those types of shots and seem to have supreme confidence they’ll make them; looking at the shot chart, DeRozan’s shots were inefficient long 2s, but Gay’s were 1-2 steps outside the paint. Also, Gay beat a shorthanded Wolves team last April with the Griz by taking and making those same shots. It’s more a philosophical question than a critique of the gameplan.

    1. That’s a good observation. I often wonder that myself. I think the problem is that if someone is really hot shooting long twos, there’s really nothing you can do besides a) attempting to deny or double in order to get the ball out of their hands and b) contesting as hard as possible once they do get a shot up. From where I sat, the biggest problem was not that they weren’t taking those long twos away but that, especially in the first half, AK would give Gay space and Gay would still beat him off the dribble and get good looks inside 10 feet, as you say. But I think my larger point is that, despite the fact that Gay and DeRozan were so hot, they still didn’t hurt the Wolves all that badly. Look at the best scorers from around the league last night. Melo was at 1.17 points per possession, Mike Miller was at 1.44, Durant was 1.31, J.R. Smith was 1.3. DeRozan and Gay were both at 1.04 which is good but nothing special–and the Wolves held the Raptors to .9 ppp overall. So, to me, allowing them those long range twos while staying relatively solid everywhere else was a pretty good strategy. If they’d just made a couple free throws we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.

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