2016-17 Season, Game Analysis

Grizzlies 102, Wolves 98: If youth knew, if age could


This Minnesota Timberwolves team is ready to make the leap. This Wolves team is also too young to have it all come together right away. These two prevailing proclamations about Year 1 of the Tom Thibodeau era in Minnesota ran right into each other like a bang-bang charge/block call in the paint Wednesday night against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Wolves wanted to show off their new era of basketball by building on their randomly impressive season-opener record.

Over the past 20 years, the Wolves are 15-5 in season openers, but one of those five they couldn’t secure came in Memphis two years ago. That night, they fought hard as a young team trying to find their way against a tough Grizzlies squad, only to lose by four points. This time around, the Grizzlies were a bit banged up missing Chandler Parsons and Tony Allen. They got off to an incredibly slow start as the Wolves blitzed them early with 3-pointers, trips to the free throw line, and aggressive defense.

There are new, younger components to this Grizzlies team, but mostly it’s a veteran core of Marc Gasol and Mike Conley leading them. And they did what all good veterans do when faced with an onslaught against them. They took a breath. They accepted the moment. And they countered against their opponent.

Memphis started hitting 3-pointers in the first quarter — something that hasn’t been associated with the team in the past but should be this season. The Wolves would see their deficit get cut by defensive mistake after defensive mistake to leave a shooter after 18-20 good seconds of defense in a possession. But they countered at the end of the second quarter to build a lead back up.

Then the third quarter happened. The Grizzlies adjusted and came out of halftime ready to remind the Wolves of their youth. At times, Andrew Wiggins would rally the offense with scoring binges, but mostly they looked stonewalled in the path of their direct steps by older players who knew how to stop what the Wolves were attempting to do. Instead of taking that breath and accepting the situation, the Wolves splattered in some youthful panic and couldn’t close the deal.

Here are five sections of brief game analysis:

The Bad Stuff

Free throw shooting

Andrew Wiggins was overwhelming getting to the free throw line in this game. He got their 10 times in the first half alone, and 14 times total. But while that 8-of-10 success rate in the first half was exactly what you want to see, going just 2-of-4 in the second half was the minor erosion that eventually led to the collapse and loss. It’s not just on him though. 10-of-14 from the line is good but not good enough for accuracy. The rest of the team left a bunch of points on the free throw line, as well.

Overall, Wolves were 20-of-29 on freebies. Shockingly, Ricky Rubio was 2-of-5 on free throws after going 84% last season. If they shoot with the success they shot last season, the Wolves add three points to their score. Then is it a coin flip? A bit less than a coin flip in this hypothetical vacuum? Can’t leave points at the free throw line or you risk blowing a lead and a chance at a win.

Pace of the game

NBA.com clocked this game in at a little above 94 possessions. That’s not the way the Wolves want to play. Thibodeau isn’t going to be confused for Mike D’Antoni, but the Wolves want to push the ball in transition much more than they did Wednesday night. You need to get stops to do that and those made 3-pointers by Memphis certainly didn’t count as stops. You also want to play faster in this game because you want to put the pressure on Memphis. Marc Gasol can move his feet but make him sprint up the floor. Make Zach Randolph look like he’s a runaway semi-truck looking for an off-ramp.

After 27 hours of basketball, the Wolves have played the slowest game in the NBA. Not how they should approach this match-up.

Putting the defense on their heels

At times in this game, the Wolves were great at putting the Grizzlies on their heels defensively. They attacked with purpose and had the Grizzlies retreating toward the hoop instead of cutting it off in defiance. But for the most part, the Wolves often found themselves off-balance as they attacked around the basket. When that happened, the Grizzlies didn’t have to scramble and recover. They simply had to hold their ground and be ready for the counter pass or dribble.

On the other hand, they had the Wolves on their heels quite a bit, especially Gorgui Dieng. Which brings me to…

Who Mans Is This?

Marrying internet lingo with poor defense, I present to you a couple of frustrating highlights from notorious slow-starter Gorgui Dieng. I loved Dieng in the first five minutes of this game. He hit jumpers and rebounded the ball (he rebounded well most of the night). There was a small stretch late in the game in which he was making plays around the basket too. The rest of it was like watching an awkward kid try to dance at an 8th grade cotillion.

Here are two examples of Dieng just blowing pick-and-roll coverage by being too upright and not taking away the driving angles. This stuff had to drive Thibodeau insane. You can live with Dieng getting eaten alive by Gasol and Z-Bo inside. That stuff happens to most big men in the NBA. What you can’t live with is Dieng being in No Man’s Land in pick-and-roll coverage. In this first play, Rubio is harassing Mike Conley pretty well.

As Conley gets Rubio into a screen, Dieng doesn’t hedge it, nor does he protect the basket. He just keeps moving like he’s wondering if he should make a decision on how to play it and before he makes that decision, Conley has position for the layup.

Here it is again with the attack by Conley slowed down to half speed. Dieng can’t waffle between decisions here. Conley is simply too good at attacking not to take advantage. With Rubio stalking a drop-off pass to the rolling Gasol, Dieng has to smother the dribbler. Instead, he lays out the red carpet for him and gives a 3-point play opportunity in the process.

The other one happened in earlier on when Wade Baldwin was running a PnR with Gasol on the right side. Most of the time, you’re going to want to run that play as a point guard deeper into the half court — maybe around the free throw line extended. The reason for this is to give your big man room to stretch a bit while also having less real estate to make up should you choose to drive.

The danger of that is you’re operating much closer to the baseline, but the benefit if you’re a lightning quick NBA player is you can really put the defense on their heels by being closer to the rim as you start the action. Baldwin doesn’t do that. He runs it much higher, which should give Dieng plenty of time and space to force the dribble to the baseline and either wait for help on a trap from Rubio or play Baldwin straight up to force a bad shot.

Instead, Dieng is off-balance, on his heels, and doesn’t even come close to cutting off the driving lane to the basket. Maybe he wanted to force Baldwin baseline, but he never uses the right angle to attempt such a funneling. The result? A great dunk for the rookie.

Dieng was horrendous for a lot of defensive possessions. He’ll get better but they can’t have many games in which he defends these basic actions so poorly.

The Good Stuff

Andrew Wiggins took over

No need for a big breakdown on all of this stuff for the first game, so I’ll be brief. Wiggins’ play in the first half was really good. He used his positioning and quickness to draw fouls against defenders at a physical disadvantage. While he didn’t draw as many fouls in the second half, he managed to right the ship on offense by going to work in the middle of the floor. We want him attacking the basket and we want him becoming a 3-point shooter.

But when the Wolves needed some buckets to stop the bleeding and keep pace with Memphis, Wiggins just obliterated the defenders in front of him. That handle is so much tighter than it was a year ago. His confidence in his jumper is high. And there’s still something very fun about him being surgical in the way he sets up moves with his footwork and then pounces into his shot when he’s created imbalance with the defender.

And hey he grabbed seven rebounds!

Karl-Anthony Towns early

Karl-Anthony Towns was absurd to start the game. He had 16 points on 7-of-8 shooting in his first 12 minutes on the floor. After that, Memphis did a better job sticking to him when he was off the ball, he missed a couple of jumpers he’d normally make, and he never got back into that rhythm in the second half. He really seemed bothered by the physicality of the Grizzlies’ bigs as the game wore on. He needs to adjust to that.

But he showed that he can be an overwhelming force on offense in stretches and the defense can’t do much about it, other than hope he misses.

Cole Aldrich’s minutes

Cole Aldrich’s defense was spectacular. In nearly 10 minutes of action, the Wolves were a +23.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and gave up just 75.9 points per 100 possessions. Some of that is due to the quality of bench players Memphis can throw at you, but Aldrich was also just great at getting in the way of PnR attacks and being able to recover to protect the basket.

Close The Gap Update

So the big thing Thibodeau took away from last season was the idea of closing the gap at the 3-point line. I wrote about it here, but just a quick refresher course. Thibs said due to the 3-point disparity between what the Wolves were putting out last season and what they were allowing, it was like digging your way out of a 10-point hole immediately. That was the gap the Wolves wanted to close. Wolves opponents made 578 more 3-pointers than the Wolves connected on.

That’s a 1,734 point differential from beyond the arc.

After Game 1, the gap is still an abyss. The Wolves allowed 11-of-24 from 3-point range but the biggest damage was done in the first quarter. Memphis was 6-of-9 from deep in the first 12 minutes of the game, 5-of-15 in the final three quarters. It got better as the game went on, but that clap back in the final six minutes of the first quarter just killed the Wolves. The result?

Wolves were a -15 from beyond the arc after going just 6-of-18. Zach LaVine was 3-of-6. Karl-Anthony Towns was 2-of-5. Andrew Wiggins was 1-of-1. Everybody else was a combined 0-of-6. And that 20.2% 3-point rate from last season (2nd lowest in the NBA) was just 20.9% against Memphis. Part of that is how the Grizzlies take away 3-point shots, but the Wolves could’ve done more to create good looks.

The Rookie Debut

After having a horrendously inefficient scoring preseason that was buoyed by very solid defensive play, naturally Kris Dunn’s first real NBA game had him efficiently score 8 points on 4-of-6 shooting and get eaten alive by Mike Conley. He didn’t set up his teammates all that well, but Memphis can really take that away from inexperienced guards.

His buckets were fun though. The first score came on a sideline inbounds play in which the Grizzlies tried to overplay a pass to KAT. Towns immediately got the ball back to Dunn, Brandon Rush sealed off a help defender, and the baseline became a runway for takeoff. Throughout the night, he recognized open space on the floor really well when he didn’t have the ball.

KAT found him underneath for his second score, he hustled in transition for his third score, and his fourth bucket came on a nice floater when Z-Bo couldn’t decide whether or not to challenge him.

Solid debut for him. Solid debut at times for the Wolves. And much to work on. Next game is Saturday in Sacramento against the currently undefeated Kings.

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4 thoughts on “Grizzlies 102, Wolves 98: If youth knew, if age could

  1. Is the first game too early for me to be this angry or this annoyed at the officials? I was hoping for a more reassuring season opener.

    The officials mostly let guys play, including a lot of pushing (Zach Randoooolph!). This favored the less skinny, veteran team (not us). Yet, I do believe Memphis won the whining competition.

    Fizzdale might be a good, or at least interesting coach. Memphis has arguably let two good coaches go that they should not have in recent years, but Fizzdale looks alright early. And he was wearing 3D movie glasses, so I think he saw things in a 4th dimension…

    For our part, Thibs talked about all the execution issues we need to fix after the game. He said ‘finishing on D’ a lot–not sure what exactly that refers to… But we are young and will have lapses in execution. That’s not what worried me. After a disastrous start, Memphis played exactly how they wanted to when they wanted to. They imposed their will. They became a GS-like 3 point team right when they needed to fly back into the game from an early deficit. Then it was like a hockey game that takes place just on one end of the ice. It was a slow pace, bruising, and the Wolves were forced into a pace they did not like. We hardly got out into transition. No alley oop attempts or impressive fast breaks. This is alarming because even if we aren’t executing our plan perfectly, we do need one to challenge teams to play our way.

    Suddenly Memphis was this amazing 3 point shooting team. Yeah our perimeter D could have been better, but jeez.

    Wiggins didn’t look rusty and you can tell he was working hard in the off season. I’m excited to see what he can do. He’s rebounding. Kat looked overly excited and a few games in he’s going to be going nuts.

    Zach is our best shooter.

    Thibs didn’t to the hockey sub thing. That’s the good news. But while bits and pieces of the bench played alright, it would be a mistake to say our bench did what they need to do. I couldn’t help but think part of this is because there was no defined 2nd unit in almost any lineup and the changes were so frequent and complex they may have thrown the rhythm of the bench guys off.

    Neither Rubio or Dunn had the defensive impact we hope and expect. Rubio played alright but was a little off. Oddly, Dunn scored fairly well (although had some bad shot selection that suggests this efficient shooting was an anomaly) but his passing was not good, nor his defense. His intensity was good, but it seemed like a show that was easily side stepped by whoever he was guarding. A few times he let someone blow by him.

    Dieng played well, and rebounded. He also hit some nice shots that kept our momentum early. Aldrich had a complex move in the post I didn’t think he was capable of and defended well. He could use a few more minutes. Shabazz and Rush disappointed but will play better. Bjelica needs more opportunities.

    We’ll play better. We looked a little tight and like we are still learning. But we need to impose our style and strengths more going forward. Memphis is not as good as we are on talent alone, particularly with the injuries they had. We need to learn to beat teams like this.

  2. Well for five minutes we looked like the dream team vs Angola. Then the Griz beat us up a little and we didn’t make them pay at the free throw line and traded one point for three. Once they got back in the game, they slowed the pace, got us playing iso ball and we just didn’t play like a veteran team in the clutch.

    I thought Cole should have played more, KAT and Dieng were getting abused by Z-bully and Gasol and needed more beef down low. They also played poorly on pick and roll d and Cole was better at stopping the driver and returning to the big. Our offense is best, when we move the ball from side to side, rebound and run. We got pushed into the mud and tried to beat Memphis at their own game. Not smart.

    A loss at Memphis isn’t the end of the world, but after the first five minutes it seemed like we should have won comfortably but instead looked a lot like the wolves of the last 12 years. Now a playoff team will take it out on an inferior opponent (Sac) and then get revenge against the Grizzlies at home. Let’s see how much this team has grown.

  3. Kind of torn. As I watched, it was clear that they’re better than *this* version of the Grizzlies, the one lacking Tony Allen, Chandler Parsons, and Brandan Wright. At full strength, guys like Deyonta Davis and 1-2 of Vince Carter/Andrew Harrison/James Ennis aren’t playing, which changes things (Wiggins’ night changes with Allen on him). They were caught off-guard by Memphis’ willingness to shoot threes, and the Grizz probably made more than they normally will. They let the Grizz hang around with stagnant offense in the 2nd half and gave up the deciding points on 2 possessions where Rubio showed once again how terrible he is at handling ball screens on D.

    But they didn’t really play that well and had a chance to win on the road against a perennial playoff team with its 2 best players both having good games (not to mention ticky-tacking Memphis into the bonus while they were getting creamed on offensive putbacks with few whistles). Those situations have been rare around here for a while.

  4. I totally agree on on the assessment of Dieng’s defense. Obviously it is just one game, but it was frustrating to see some of his poor habits that he displayed often last year especially with his help defense. Hopefully Thibs will break some of these habits sooner rather than later.

    On the other hand, I’m not sure I agree with the assessment of Dunn’s defense. At least I don’t recall Conley eating him alive. In fact, I was extremely impressed how he fought over screens and pressured the ball handler. Rubio is vastly underrated nationally, so I find it frustrating when analyst don’t recognize all the good he does. With that said, a couple of my frustrations with him (maybe even more than his lack of shooting) are his inability to finish at the rim and the fact that he gets caught up in too many screens. Once again this is just 1 game but I thought Dunn fought over the screens well (which will alleviate some of Dieng defensive issues) and took it strong to the rim and finished.

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