2016-17 Roster Review: Ricky Rubio

photo via Sporting News

Ricky Rubio had two seasons.

There was the one that took place on the basketball floor. In some ways Rubio played the best ball of his career in 2016-17. He posted career highs in points per game, assists per game and field goal percentage. After some early struggles adjusting to new coach Tom Thibodeau, Rubio re-established himself as a good NBA point guard.

Then there was the season that he had off the floor — the one that involved coping with family tragedy, adapting to another new coach and another front-office shake-up, and constantly reading about himself in trade rumors. The last twelve months have not been easy ones for Ricky Rubio the person.

On the Floor

In his 2016-17 season, Rubio averaged 11.1 points, 9.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game. He posted an above-average PER of 16.8 and above-average win shares per 48 minutes of 0.119. For the first time in his NBA career he eclipsed the 40 percent mark on field goals (40.2%). From three-point range, he regressed from 32.6% in 2015-16 to 30.6%.

Rubio actually started the season poorly. Whether it was adjusting to Thibs, struggling with the right elbow injury he suffered in the second game of the season (he missed the next five games) or just a slump, he played the worst basketball of his life in October and November 2016. In my “first quarter report card” post that recapped each player’s first 20 games, I had this to say about Ricky, who earned a “D” letter grade:

Perhaps the most important takeaway from this quarter-season of Timberwolves games is that Ricky Rubio is not going to fit into the new system. For reasons that are partly his fault (continued horrific shooting, mostly) and partly not (Thibs redistributing some playmaking assignments to non-point guards) Rubio has struggled mightily. He is shooting 36.4% from the field. He is averaging a career-lows in per-game points (6.6) and assists (6.4). Most damning of all, Rubio’s on/off splits have gone from “first to worst” on the team. In 547 minutes with Ricky on the floor, the Wolves have been outscored by a whopping 9.0 points per 100 possessions. In the 562 without him, they’ve actually outscored opponents by 2.6 per 100.

There isn’t much for positive spin here. Rubio is not playing well, and — for the first time in his NBA career — it isn’t clear that he’s a helpful player in this system.

Yeah things weren’t good.

Thankfully for Ricky and for Wolves fans, however, he turned things around in a major way. It seemed that, over time, Thibs put the ball in Rubio’s hands to make more plays and take more risks. That meant not only more high risk/high reward passes (like his long shove-ahead passes up the floor and his fine-tuned alley-oop lobs to Wiggins) but also just plain shooting more jumpers when defenses left him open. As Ricky played with more freedom, his numbers saw a big boost. Here are his month-to-month splits.

You’ll notice that his shooting percentages and assist numbers started off slowly, when his turnovers were likewise very low. As he was freed up to make more plays, he shot and dished the ball a lot better. His plus-minus stats also improved dramatically.

To dig a bit more into specifics, Rubio improved his mid-range jumpshot in 2016-17. According to nba.com/stats, Rubio made 120 mid-range Js on 273 attempts, good for a 44.0 percentage. That is far from elite (Chris Paul shot 50.9% from mid-range) but plenty good enough to keep defenses honest. Karl-Anthony Towns, Jamal Crawford, George Hill, and Damian Lillard each had lower mid-range field goal percentages than Rubio, to name a few and to give you an idea of how solid 44% is. In prior seasons (going back in time, starting with 2015-16) Rubio shot the following percentages from the mid-range: 35.4, 40.5, 28.6, 34.6, and 32.6. If the 44% mark of last season sticks, that’s huge. For a player whose entire reputation is stained by poor shooting, Rubio could really open some eyes with an expanded arsenal that includes a reliable mid-range jumper.

Off the Floor

While he continued to play good basketball for the Wolves this past year, Rubio dealt with all sorts of issues off the floor and in his personal life.

In April 2016, almost immediately after their season ended, the Timberwolves relieved Milt Newton and Sam Mitchell of their interim GM and coach duties, replacing them with Tom Thibodeau of Chicago Bulls fame. What this meant for Rubio was unclear, other than that it would mean his fourth coach and third front-office shake-up in six seasons. The days of being David Kahn’s favorite player in the world were far in the rear-view mirror.

In May 2016, Rick’s mother, Tona, passed away from lung cancer at the age of 56. This real-life tragedy is disproportionate to the Timberwolves issues that followed, and it almost seems offensive on some level to include it in a summary this way, but it’s important context for all that he’s been going through. You almost wouldn’t have known that he experienced such a devastating loss — he approached the next season like the total pro that he is, and he (mostly) continued to look like he was having the same fun on the floor that he always did. A small exception would be when he’d point up in the air after a big play or big win.

In June, Thibs drafted point guard Kris Dunn with the fifth pick in the draft. Dunn not only played Rubio’s position, but he shared some of his primary strengths (defense) and weaknesses (shooting) which made the selection feel more like a replacement than a supplement.

In October, Adrian Woj reported that Tom Thibodeau was resisting trade offers for Rubio in the short term, but he planned to make Dunn his starting point guard after 20 games or so. Considering that Dunn had yet to play a single NBA game and Rubio was a proven player, this report could not have sat well with him. It’s possible that this preseason distraction was one reason for his slow start. Dunn’s disappointing play — in particular, during Rubio’s early-season injury that could’ve been the impetus for the Ricky-to-Dunn transition — made Woj’s report less relevant, but still circumstantial evidence of how Thibs felt about Rubio as a franchise point guard.

In January 2017, Woj dropped another Rubio bomb. He reported that the Wolves were “actively shopping” Rubio, and attaching him to Shabazz Muhammad in a variety of trade proposals around the league. Woj went further yet, explaining the reasoning for the trade: Thibs wanted a short-term “bridge guard” to play point guard until Dunn became ready for full-time starter duties. Given how poorly Dunn had been playing, this was a head-scratching report. Even if Thibs was less than enamored with Rubio or wanted a different lead guard, it didn’t seem like the “bridge guard” thing made sense. Again, this must’ve been distracting for Ricky, who by this point was playing better basketball.

In February came the trade deadline, and Rubio’s name was mentioned as much as any player in the league. Specifically, in the 48 hours leading up to the deadline, all of the major NBA beat writers had Rubio going to the Knicks for Derrick Rose. This caused an uproar on Timberwolves Twitter for a few different reasons, the most significant being that Rubio is a better player than Rose at this point in each’s career and the rumored swap wouldn’t make any sense. Alas, the deal didn’t happen. According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, the Wolves balked at the one-for-one swap that the Knicks put on the table at the 11th hour. It’s hard to know who initiated what, but it’s clear that the two teams were talking. Ricky himself decided to follow Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis on Twitter during the hot rumor period. Maybe that was coincidental timing, but it seemed more like impressively Minnesotan passive aggressiveness from the Spaniard.

In March, shortly after the trade-deadline drama, Rubio’s agent, Dan Fegan, was fired and sued by his agency. Fegan, who some believe is a driving force behind some of the trade rumors involving his client, is still technically Rubio’s agent. But that may change soon. Fegan is involved in some ugly litigation against his former agency at the moment.

What now?

The playoffs are in full swing — big Game 7 tonight at Boston between the Wizards and Celtics — and the Timberwolves are off for the summer.

I mean what now between Ricky and the Wolves. (Marsellus Wallace voice) Oh *that* ‘what now?’

The short answer is that it’s really hard to say. Rubio is under contract on a reasonable-under-the-new-salary-cap deal that will pay him about $14 million next year and almost $15 million the year after that. An ESPN analysis found it to be one of the league’s 15 best bargains for players earning over $10 million per year. He played well for most of last season, he’s clearly (way) better than Dunn, and it would take a free agency splash (this year’s crop includes some big-name point guards like Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, and others) to make a clear upgrade at the position from Rubio. The draft lottery is tomorrow night and the Wolves — whether they luck into the top three or fall in the more likely 6-7 range — will have a look at some very intriguing point guard prospects in this year’s crop. It is not inconceivable that Thibs-Layden, LLC will take a mulligan on the Kris Dunn Kahncept, and draft yet another point guard with the idea being to replace Rubio in the long term. If that happens, Rubio’s off-court frustrations will continue, but he’ll most likely continue doing his job (Thibs voice) on the court.

The only certainty at this point is more uncertainty.

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5 thoughts on “2016-17 Roster Review: Ricky Rubio

  1. I still don’t understand all the unwavering love for Rubio from Wolves fans. I’ve been a Timberwolves fan for 20 years and I can’t stand Rubio. He does NOT fit into today’s style of NBA play. He would have been great in the 80s. But you have to have a PG who can shoot/score in today’s game. Look around the league at the winning teams. All have scoring point guards.

    1. He’s charismatic and he’s an above average player in literally every measurable aspect with the exception of shooting. It doesn’t show up on the box score, but the Wolves have always been a markedly better team when he’s on the floor than when he’s not.

      But you’re right, Rubio’s lack of shooting has hurt the Wolves, especially with their pick n roll game and how opposing teams defend it. But how do they address this problem? And should they address this problem considering that there are bigger problems on the roster than Rubio. I think Wiggins will eventually grow into a solid #3, but until his body matures, he’s a #2 and the Wolves don’t have a solid, dependable SF. Dieng is a center playing power forward. The Wolves desperately need a true #4. The Wolves lack scorers. The Wolves lack anyone on the bench that can provide consistent offense night in and night out. These are significant problems.

      Is the “problem” of having a very good point guard with a history of offensive troubles but who does everything else well more pressing?

      If so, who do we replace him with? Would a reasonably priced scoring point guard that will almost certainly not have the playmaking and perimeter defensive capabilities of Rubio be an upgrade?

      Or do we pay a high end FA 20+ million a season? That’s by no means unthinkable, but looking at the landscape, it makes little sense to pay someone like Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry or George Hill that kind of money now when a team like Golden State is going to be dominant for the next few years. They’re too old. It would only make sense if that point guard is young, so there’s time for Golden State to “age out” of their dominance. It’s the same reason the rumored trade for Jimmy Butler made so little sense.

      The ONE guy (that I can think of) that might make sense in terms of skillset and age is Jrue Holiday. That would be an intriguing pickup but given his durability issues, keeping Rubio on the team to come off the bench would be a must. Jrue won’t come cheap though.

    2. All have scoring point guards except for the ones that don’t, right? And if he’s such a detriment to running a good offense in today’s NBA, how have the Wolves been average or better on offense, with Rubio, the past two years, despite having the roster talent of a consistent lottery team? Your theory makes no sense and doesn’t fit the facts. Lots of problems with this Wolves team, Rubio is definitely not among them: the stats don’t lie.

  2. As an unapologetic Rubio fan, I am always flabbergasted by the haters reasoning that only good teams have scoring point guards, therefore Rubio is no good. For the last several years, the conventional wisdom was that the Center position was history. Then along came Embiid, KAT, Porzingas, Boogie, Brow, Marc Gasol and Jokic and now everyone wants the new big center, so people want talent at all positions. The Spurs really don’t have a starting point guard that scares people anymore. Utah has no real scorer in Hill, Milwaukee doesn’t have a great scorer, unless Giannis is the PG. Atlanta has Schroeder and he can get to the basket, but isn’t a great outside threat. These are winning teams that don’t have great scoring point guards. Even the bulls made the playoffs with a notoriously bad shooter in Rondo.

    As for the teams with great scoring point guards, Westbrook is viewed as a one dimensional player that frustrated KD to the point of leaving his team. Hardin was viewed as selfish and only got a lot of assists this year because he was on a team that all could shoot threes. Is Steph Curry really a PG or just a small two guard? Kyrie was a loser until he got LeBron James and KLove to let him be only a shooter, King James runs that offense.

    A PG job is to run the offense and make sure that mismatches are created for easy scoring. IF he is a great scorer that is fabulous, but as long as he can shoot wide open shots with some consistency and get to the FT line, it is more important to make sure the other teammates are getting open looks. On defense, his job is to move the offense in the opposite direction, create steals and disrupt the flow of the opponents offense. This is why Rubio has been a treat to watch, once he got his shooting down towards the middle of the season, he was driving the team forward. He will do whatever it takes to be a winner and is not the reason we have been bad the last thirteen years. ESPN even selected him as one of the most efficient and best values for the dollar in the league.

    The T-Wolves offense under Rubio, has always been an above average scoring team in the league. It has been our defense that has been terrible. Rubio could be better, defensively, but so could KAT, G, Wiggins, Zack and everyone else on this team. When you put Rubio in the position that he has to be a spot up shooter, he isn’t good at that. When you give him the ball, the team plays faster and with more scoring.

    Now, if you want to argue that Thibs doesn’t want a floor leader from his PG, but rather have his SF or KAT run the offense, then yes Ricky is not ever going to be a great scorer and he should be replaced. Just don’t say that he can’t lead this team to the playoffs, because no matter what era, he can.

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