Archives For Steve McPherson

It's a boy.

It’s a boy.

Something you hear a lot of commentators say is that the NBA is a “make or miss” league. I don’t get this. Or rather, I understand that the game is decided by who scores more points, and thus that the team that wins has—by design—made more shots than the other team. But is that all there is to this cliché? If anyone has some deeper insight to it, I’d appreciate it.

But another thing that makes a lot more sense to me that people often say is that the NBA is all about matchups. Consider this: This season, the Timberwolves have a winning percentage of .366, while the Thunder have a winning percentage of .726. And yet the season series between the two teams is even at 2-2. And last season—even though the Wolves were 0-3 against the Thunder—the games were hard fought. Minnesota lost their season opener to OKC 104-100 in 2011-12, and that was before anyone really knew what Rubio could do on a basketball court. And then, of course, there was that magnificent double overtime game in Oklahoma City that saw Barea and Durant notch triple doubles and Love score 51 while pulling down 14 rebounds. Continue Reading…

You can see pretty easily where things started to work for the Timberwolves in this game by looking at this handy game flow chart, courtesy of ESPN.com.

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First, the bad news: Obviously, neither teamed scored 140 points. Continue Reading…

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Today we’re going to talk about the philosophical concept of microcosm. Don’t run away! This stuff is cool, I promise. Or, at least as cool as looking at how a season’s worth of frustration can be contained and reflected in a minute and a half of basketball.

Here we go: Continue Reading…

With the Timberwolves welcoming back Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko to the starting lineup after nearly three weeks on the shelf, last night’s win over the New Orleans Hornets was a case study in shaking off the rust.

So let’s start by looking at some of Pek’s play on the defensive end in the first quarter. Here are several defensive possessions by the Wolves that leave a lot to be desired, particularly from Pek:

There’s an airballed hookshot, poor defensive rotations, apathetic rebounding effort, and lead-footed pick-and-roll defense.

But wait: suspend your judgment for a moment because there’s more at work here than just a lack of effort. First of all, neither Pekovic nor Kirilenko actually got to practice with the team before coming back. Normally, there are a set of steps that a player goes through to work back from an injury that involve gradual steps from conditioning to shooting to contact and eventually to full 5-on-5 work. But with the Wolves only dressing nine players for the last several weeks and a jam-packed schedule full of back-to-backs that isn’t allowing for many practices, they didn’t have much choice. Continue Reading…

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I don’t know if you heard about it on MPR on the way to work like I did, but the Timberwolves were shocked last night to defeat “one of the best teams” in the NBA, the San Antonio Spurs. Numerically speaking, it’s not even a matter of “one of” with the Spurs; even with last night’s loss they stand atop the Western Conference with the most wins in the NBA at 49-16.

But it’s a little more complicated than that. The Spurs actually have the second best win percentage behind the Eastern Conference’s top team, the Miami Heat (.754 vs. .774). So even by the numbers the definition of “best” is a little fuzzy and it only gets weirder from there. With Tony Parker sidelined with a sprained ankle and both Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard sitting with somewhat suspicious “sore left knees” last night, the Spurs weren’t putting their best team out there. And yet that exact thing might be what makes them “one of the best” teams in the NBA. Continue Reading…

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Defense is the NBA’s dark art. At this year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston this past weekend, Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss presented a paper on what they termed The Dwight Effect. Using data from STATS, LLC’s SportVU camera system, they sought to account for more than stats like blocks and opponent field goal percentage in measuring interior defense. Although they admitted their approach was still mostly one-dimensional, their work began to incorporate the idea of a player like Dwight Howard changing shots without even doing anything—in essence, him being on the floor warps the space around him defensively because players don’t even want to come into the paint.

This distorting effect that good defense can have on another team’s offense was on full display last night as the Heat brutalized the Timberwolves in Minnesota. As you can see just from the final score, the Heat didn’t look great offensively. Spoelstra said as much in the tunnel after the game, conceding that the offense was ragged, but maintaining that their identity came from their defense. Continue Reading…

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Frankly, it’s become exhausting. It’s enough to make you question why you keep watching something that just looks like a flaming wreck drag itself to the finish line. How can you pull meaning from this? The early promise struck down; the lingering and crippling injuries; the sense that just when things seem to be turning around they get worse: I wouldn’t blame you for just packing it in and waiting for next season, when things might get better.

The Timberwolves? No, I’m talking about Game of Thrones. Continue Reading…

Utah Jazz v Minnesota Timberwolves

Last night’s loss to the Utah Jazz followed an all too typical pattern for recent Wolves’ losses. A malaise-filled start leads either to the other team getting out to a big lead or the Wolves hanging around while the other team lolls about in the doldrums as well. If the lead is a thick one, the other team will hold them at arm’s length; if it’s slim, they will eventually push away. At this point, the Wolves mount a comeback—often led furiously by Ricky Rubio’s wounded competitive spirit—that falls inevitably short.

You can choose to see this global lack of effort as just a lack of effort or you can find root causes for it, such as the way players are not so much playing out of position as out of role, and that there’s not much balance in the offense. Pekovic, in particular, is wearing down, I think, from being the only player on the Wolves who does work in the paint. Williams is a shooter and (on a good day) a slasher who can rebound; Cunningham rebounds, but mostly takes midrange jumpers on offense; Stiemsma is not a force down low; neither is Chris Johnson. I know Love does a lot of his damage from outside, but he will also set up on the block and put in some work there from time to time. But with only Pek there, no one else is wearing teams down physically, which in turn wears Pek down. This little sequence right here both shows how Pek is losing some of his aggressiveness and provides a handy metaphor for the entire Wolves team right now. Continue Reading…

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A pair of white and blue Nike Hyperdunks lie in front of Greg Stiemsma’s ice-wrapped legs in the Timberwolves’ locker room. The tongue is branded with a nickname: B. ROY in all caps. But this isn’t some handmade tribute; these shoes were made by Nike for Roy.

“He’s got a ton of them,” explains Stiemsma, nodding his head towards the locker where Roy hasn’t been since November 9 when he played his fifth game as a member of the Timberwolves and likely his last game as a pro. Roy isn’t using them, so he passed them along.

Another pair of the shoes stands in front of Nikola Pekovic’s locker, one of them knocked to the side and the B. ROY on each tongue blacked out with Sharpie. As he dresses, he answers questions. Are these Brandon’s shoes? “Yup.” You put the marker over them? “Yup.” His clipped responses carry some kind of weight, but it’s hard to tell just what. Continue Reading…

Williams

The theories about exactly why Derrick Williams has underperformed in the NBA are legion, encompassing everything from unreasonable expectations for a player who shouldn’t have been picked so high to fundamental concerns about his tweener status to even more fundamental concerns about his work ethic and motor. (If you want a good read about his efforts to get better, check out Jon Krawczynski‘s post on Yahoo! Sports.) One particular thread of this discussion, though, is the idea that coach Rick Adelman simply doesn’t like playing young guys—that Williams is being punished unreasonably by being installed in Adelman’s doghouse and could blossom if simply given some more time on the court.

You can hardly blame Adelman for Williams’ inability to stay in the game against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night. After picking up 5 fouls in just over 12 minutes of action, Adelman had little choice, but given Williams’ history with Adelman, it seems reasonable to wonder if Adelman’s return will not be a positive for him. As it happens, Adelman’s recent absence from the sidelines has given us a perfect opportunity to look at how Williams fared under Terry Porter during the 11 games he coached versus the 11 previous games under Adelman. Continue Reading…